CEDAR CREEK LAKE - When will the lake fill-up? It's a question I get asked a lot - as if a REALTOR(R) would know anything about when it's going to rain or how much of that rain will make its way into Cedar Creek Lake. Over the years, I've heard a lot theories about how much rain it takes to fill the lake. Most of those are just unsubstantiated speculations. So, I decided to research it for myself and here's what I found: First of all, it's important to know that the watershed which supplies Cedar Creek Lake is more than 1,000 square miles in size - 1,007 square miles to be more precise which is an area roughly equal to 32 miles wide by 32 miles long. The watershed covers portions of four counties: Rockwall, Kaufman, Van Zandt and Henderson. And, includes portions of more than 20 towns and cities: Athens, Canton, Eustace, Fate, Forney, Gray's Prairie, Gun Barrel City, Kaufman, Kemp, Mabank, McLendon-Chisholm, Oak Grove, Oak Ridge, Post Oak Bend City, Rockwall, Scurry, Seven Points, Talty, Terrell, Tool and Wills Point. Rain which falls in the watershed makes its way to Cedar Creek Lake by way of its main tributaries: Bachelor Creek, Big Brushy Creek, Big Laney Creek, Caney Creek, Cedar Creek, Clear Creek, Cottonwood Creek, High Point Creek, Kings Creek, Lacy Fork, Persimmon Branch, Prairie Creek, North Twin Creek and South Twin Creek. So, how fast can the lake fill up? Well, here are a couple of interesting facts: - If 1 inch of rain fell on the entire watershed (644,480 square acres) AND if all of that water made its way into Cedar Creek Lake, the lake would rise almost 19 inches in level! Of course, there's no way that all of that water could make its way into the lake. Some of it gets absorbed into the ground; Some of it is trapped in stock ponds, bar ditches and other bodies of water. - When the lake has been down 4 feet or more on New Year's Day, the longest it has taken to fill up to 320' (the average lake level) has been 154 days - until June 4th in 1981, but it has taken as few as 22 days - until January 23rd in 2007. [See Lake Level Recoveries After New Year's Day chart below] But can it recover from being down more than 7-3/4 feet? Sure, it has recovered more than that. In 1966, the lake level rose nearly 29 feet in just 71 days. More recently, the lake rose 5.38 feet (64.56 inches) in only 26 days back in 2006-2007. [See Best Lake Level Recoveries chart below] Perhaps more importantly, the water level can rise dramatically in only 24 hours. Back in 1966, the lake level is recorded as having risen 8.30 feet from April 24th to the 25th. In 2010, the lake level rose 1.55 feet over June 9th and 10th, and there have been 20 other times the lake level has risen 12 inches or more in just 24 hours. UPDATE: Our most recent rain of January 24th and 25th saw the lake level increase 14 1/2 inches. [See Best 24-Hour Fill-Ups chart below] Now for the tricky question: When is it going to rain? - The Old Farmer's Almanac says to expect rain - off and on through January; February may be a bit dryer than normal, but still expect 1 inch of rain. In April and May, we should expect above normal rainfall. September and October should also bring above-normal rainfall with some hurricanes. - Harris-Mann Climatology says that the La Niña affect will weaken this Spring with severe storms expected to produce some localized flooding - especially in March and April. And, they expect precipitation to be up about 10% from normal in February. - DryDay(R) forecasts a couple of rainy days left in January and at least 5 'risky' days in February with better than 40% chances of precipitation. - The Town & Country Almanac (Almanac USA) says to expect a thunderstorm or two in early February, followed by a couple of days of rain (or snow!) in the middle of the month. No one knows for sure what the future holds, but don't be mislead by uninformed sources and stay positive. One thing is absolutely certain: Cedar Creek Lake will fill-up again and when it does you want to be here! Resources: Compiled from information provided by the Tarrant Regional Water District and the North Central Texas Council of Governments.